{
  "meta": {
    "title": "Monthly broad U.S. equity, Treasury bill and CPI history",
    "verifiedAt": "2026-10-18",
    "retrievedAt": "2026-10-18T12:17:58+00:00",
    "startMonth": "1926-07",
    "endMonth": "2026-08",
    "observationCount": 1202,
    "marketLabel": "Broad U.S. stock market research portfolio",
    "marketScope": "Value-weighted eligible U.S.-incorporated CRSP firms listed on NYSE, AMEX or NASDAQ; source Mkt-RF + RF.",
    "returnFrequency": "monthly",
    "returnUnit": "decimal",
    "inflationSeries": "CUUR0000SA0",
    "estimatedCpiMonths": [
      "2025-10"
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "fama-french",
        "name": "Fama/French Research Data Factors, monthly U.S. market and one-month Treasury bill series",
        "url": "https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html",
        "detailsUrl": "https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/Data_Library/f-f_factors.html",
        "downloadUrl": "https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_Factors_CSV.zip",
        "attribution": "Copyright 2026 Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French",
        "license": "Source copyright retained; no open license asserted.",
        "transformation": "stockReturn = (Mkt-RF + RF) / 100; cashReturn = RF / 100."
      },
      {
        "id": "bls-cpi",
        "name": "BLS CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted, CUUR0000SA0",
        "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
        "downloadUrl": "https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/cu/cu.data.1.AllItems",
        "license": "U.S. government public domain; citation requested",
        "transformation": "M01-M12 monthly index observations only. Initial purchasing power is anchored to previous-month CPI; ending purchasing power uses final-month CPI."
      },
      {
        "id": "bls-missing-cpi",
        "name": "BLS 2025 federal government shutdown CPI FAQ",
        "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi-faq.htm",
        "transformation": "October 2025 missing CPI is an explicitly labeled PennyCalc geometric interpolation sqrt(September CPI × November CPI), not an official observed index."
      },
      {
        "id": "fred-cpi-copy",
        "name": "FRED copy of BLS CPI-U NSA, CPIAUCNS",
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
        "downloadUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CPIAUCNS",
        "role": "Independent retrieval and comparison against direct BLS numeric observations; the underlying inflation source is still BLS.",
        "license": "Public domain, citation requested, as identified in the FRED series metadata."
      }
    ],
    "limitations": [
      "This is a broad U.S. value-weighted equity research portfolio, not the S&P 500, VOO, VTI, or a directly investable fund.",
      "Monthly data cannot establish exact daily market peaks, troughs, or recovery dates. Scenario dates represent month boundaries.",
      "Returns include reinvested dividends. Current CIZ-format monthly returns compound daily returns with dividends reinvested on ex-dates.",
      "One-month Treasury bill data are from Ibbotson Associates through May 2024, and ICE BofA US 1-Month Treasury Bill Index from June 2024.",
      "Published source returns are rounded to 0.01 percentage point; compounded calculations inherit that input precision.",
      "Research series may be revised when source databases change. Retain the dated source hashes for reproducibility.",
      "October 2025 BLS CPI-U is missing. PennyCalc uses one explicitly flagged geometric interpolation between September and November; this is not a published CPI observation.",
      "No taxes, fund expenses, transaction costs, behavioral changes, or future market estimates are included.",
      "Historical overlapping holding-period outcomes are not independent trials, future probabilities, or guarantees."
    ],
    "downloads": [
      {
        "file": "raw/french-factors.zip",
        "url": "https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ftp/F-F_Research_Data_Factors_CSV.zip",
        "bytes": 13065,
        "sha256": "593f4fbef03181bc0b22ff6292f217689dd1fb79355049ca905d95b262040a66"
      },
      {
        "file": "raw/bls-allitems.txt",
        "url": "https://download.bls.gov/pub/time.series/cu/cu.data.1.AllItems",
        "bytes": 2690809,
        "sha256": "f3c22c8592d9134fa5ab305fa2df6e37dfd2388f10168985fdbc84082deb4ff0"
      },
      {
        "file": "raw/fred-cpi-table.html",
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CPIAUCNS",
        "bytes": 180456,
        "sha256": "8de62771a6ce13898dc345107be39c92806d251da2c09c6be411a11a22192588"
      }
    ]
  },
  "months": [
    {
      "month": "1926-07",
      "stockReturn": 0.0311,
      "cashReturn": 0.0022,
      "cpi": 17.5,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.7,
      "cpiObserved": 17.5,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1926-08",
      "stockReturn": 0.0289,
      "cashReturn": 0.0025,
      "cpi": 17.4,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.5,
      "cpiObserved": 17.4,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1926-09",
      "stockReturn": 0.0061,
      "cashReturn": 0.0023,
      "cpi": 17.5,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.4,
      "cpiObserved": 17.5,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1926-10",
      "stockReturn": -0.0295,
      "cashReturn": 0.0032,
      "cpi": 17.6,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.5,
      "cpiObserved": 17.6,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1926-11",
      "stockReturn": 0.0285,
      "cashReturn": 0.0031,
      "cpi": 17.7,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.6,
      "cpiObserved": 17.7,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1926-12",
      "stockReturn": 0.029,
      "cashReturn": 0.0028,
      "cpi": 17.7,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.7,
      "cpiObserved": 17.7,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-01",
      "stockReturn": 0.002,
      "cashReturn": 0.0025,
      "cpi": 17.5,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.7,
      "cpiObserved": 17.5,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-02",
      "stockReturn": 0.0443,
      "cashReturn": 0.0026,
      "cpi": 17.4,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.5,
      "cpiObserved": 17.4,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-03",
      "stockReturn": 0.0044,
      "cashReturn": 0.003,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.4,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-04",
      "stockReturn": 0.0072,
      "cashReturn": 0.0025,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-05",
      "stockReturn": 0.0575,
      "cashReturn": 0.003,
      "cpi": 17.4,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.4,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-06",
      "stockReturn": -0.0212,
      "cashReturn": 0.0026,
      "cpi": 17.6,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.4,
      "cpiObserved": 17.6,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-07",
      "stockReturn": 0.0756,
      "cashReturn": 0.003,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.6,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-08",
      "stockReturn": 0.0227,
      "cashReturn": 0.0028,
      "cpi": 17.2,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.2,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-09",
      "stockReturn": 0.0498,
      "cashReturn": 0.0021,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.2,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-10",
      "stockReturn": -0.0404,
      "cashReturn": 0.0025,
      "cpi": 17.4,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.4,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-11",
      "stockReturn": 0.0673,
      "cashReturn": 0.0021,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.4,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1927-12",
      "stockReturn": 0.0231,
      "cashReturn": 0.0022,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-01",
      "stockReturn": -0.0032,
      "cashReturn": 0.0025,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-02",
      "stockReturn": -0.0136,
      "cashReturn": 0.0033,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-03",
      "stockReturn": 0.0908,
      "cashReturn": 0.0029,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-04",
      "stockReturn": 0.0447,
      "cashReturn": 0.0022,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-05",
      "stockReturn": 0.0184,
      "cashReturn": 0.0032,
      "cpi": 17.2,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.2,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-06",
      "stockReturn": -0.0459,
      "cashReturn": 0.0031,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.2,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-07",
      "stockReturn": 0.0095,
      "cashReturn": 0.0032,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-08",
      "stockReturn": 0.0701,
      "cashReturn": 0.0032,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-09",
      "stockReturn": 0.0314,
      "cashReturn": 0.0027,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-10",
      "stockReturn": 0.0172,
      "cashReturn": 0.0041,
      "cpi": 17.2,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.2,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-11",
      "stockReturn": 0.122,
      "cashReturn": 0.0038,
      "cpi": 17.2,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.2,
      "cpiObserved": 17.2,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1928-12",
      "stockReturn": 0.0046,
      "cashReturn": 0.0006,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.2,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-01",
      "stockReturn": 0.05,
      "cashReturn": 0.0034,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-02",
      "stockReturn": 0.0002,
      "cashReturn": 0.0036,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-03",
      "stockReturn": -0.0051,
      "cashReturn": 0.0034,
      "cpi": 17,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-04",
      "stockReturn": 0.0183,
      "cashReturn": 0.0036,
      "cpi": 16.9,
      "cpiPrevious": 17,
      "cpiObserved": 16.9,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-05",
      "stockReturn": -0.0594,
      "cashReturn": 0.0044,
      "cpi": 17,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.9,
      "cpiObserved": 17,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-06",
      "stockReturn": 0.1022,
      "cashReturn": 0.0052,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-07",
      "stockReturn": 0.0481,
      "cashReturn": 0.0033,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-08",
      "stockReturn": 0.0854,
      "cashReturn": 0.004,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-09",
      "stockReturn": -0.051,
      "cashReturn": 0.0035,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-10",
      "stockReturn": -0.1961,
      "cashReturn": 0.0046,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-11",
      "stockReturn": -0.125,
      "cashReturn": 0.0037,
      "cpi": 17.3,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.3,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1929-12",
      "stockReturn": 0.0165,
      "cashReturn": 0.0037,
      "cpi": 17.2,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.3,
      "cpiObserved": 17.2,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-01",
      "stockReturn": 0.0575,
      "cashReturn": 0.0014,
      "cpi": 17.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.2,
      "cpiObserved": 17.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-02",
      "stockReturn": 0.028,
      "cashReturn": 0.003,
      "cpi": 17,
      "cpiPrevious": 17.1,
      "cpiObserved": 17,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-03",
      "stockReturn": 0.0744,
      "cashReturn": 0.0035,
      "cpi": 16.9,
      "cpiPrevious": 17,
      "cpiObserved": 16.9,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-04",
      "stockReturn": -0.0184,
      "cashReturn": 0.0021,
      "cpi": 17,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.9,
      "cpiObserved": 17,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-05",
      "stockReturn": -0.014,
      "cashReturn": 0.0026,
      "cpi": 16.9,
      "cpiPrevious": 17,
      "cpiObserved": 16.9,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-06",
      "stockReturn": -0.1581,
      "cashReturn": 0.0027,
      "cpi": 16.8,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.9,
      "cpiObserved": 16.8,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-07",
      "stockReturn": 0.0432,
      "cashReturn": 0.002,
      "cpi": 16.6,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.8,
      "cpiObserved": 16.6,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-08",
      "stockReturn": 0.0039,
      "cashReturn": 0.0009,
      "cpi": 16.5,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.6,
      "cpiObserved": 16.5,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-09",
      "stockReturn": -0.1259,
      "cashReturn": 0.0022,
      "cpi": 16.6,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.5,
      "cpiObserved": 16.6,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-10",
      "stockReturn": -0.0869,
      "cashReturn": 0.0009,
      "cpi": 16.5,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.6,
      "cpiObserved": 16.5,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-11",
      "stockReturn": -0.0291,
      "cashReturn": 0.0013,
      "cpi": 16.4,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.5,
      "cpiObserved": 16.4,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1930-12",
      "stockReturn": -0.0772,
      "cashReturn": 0.0014,
      "cpi": 16.1,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.4,
      "cpiObserved": 16.1,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1931-01",
      "stockReturn": 0.064,
      "cashReturn": 0.0015,
      "cpi": 15.9,
      "cpiPrevious": 16.1,
      "cpiObserved": 15.9,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1931-02",
      "stockReturn": 0.1092,
      "cashReturn": 0.0004,
      "cpi": 15.7,
      "cpiPrevious": 15.9,
      "cpiObserved": 15.7,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1931-03",
      "stockReturn": -0.0622,
      "cashReturn": 0.0013,
      "cpi": 15.6,
      "cpiPrevious": 15.7,
      "cpiObserved": 15.6,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1931-04",
      "stockReturn": -0.0992,
      "cashReturn": 0.0008,
      "cpi": 15.5,
      "cpiPrevious": 15.6,
      "cpiObserved": 15.5,
      "cpiEstimated": false,
      "cpiPreviousEstimated": false,
      "cpiMethod": "observed"
    },
    {
      "month": "1931-05",
      "stockReturn": -0.132,
      "cashReturn": 0.0009,
      "cpi": 15.3,
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